I admit, I don't deal with these formats specifically (most of my data are telescope images in FITS), but I do have some experience with photographer as my dad's family has a number of portrait & commercial photographers. So here's my take on the questions asked:
Do we want the NEF files?
I'm going to look at a bit differently than most -- what you have are two different Works -- effectively, there's the taking of the picture, but there's also the correction of the picture by the photographer, which is not in the NEF files.
If you're trying to archive the artist's finished work, then the NEF files are useless. If you're trying to show his creative process, then they might have value.
The discussions of bits per channel is misleading -- if we were to talk about books, think of the NEF file as a high resolution scan of an early draft of a written work, and the JPEG has a lower resolution scan of the published work. Yes, one's of higher resolution, but does it actually capture something that's worth keeping? (and it might, it's going to vary for each collection ingested)
What would be the potential loss to the archives and to the historical
record if we only preserved the JPGs?
You're losing provenance information. If might be possible to reconstruct a higher-fidelity facsimile of the images represented in the JPEGs, but that would require some significant reconstructive efforts that would likely not be appropriate for most archives to do except for very special cases.
If we take the NEF files, do we convert them immediately to DNG, TIFF or another format?
I've done a little bit of reading up on NEF, and as it's based on TIFF/EP, I'd suggest reading the Library of Congress's notes on TIFF/EP for preservation, and specifically the link to What's in a Raw File? which talks about NEF to DNG conversion.
I'm not an expert on any of these file formats, but I'd recommend when possible, selecting an open format that's in wide use right now for the best chance of being likely to read it again in the future.
What about some kind of heuristically-guided, content-based weeding? In other words, we keep both versions of every image we're keeping, but we are selective about which images we keep.
Are there corresponding DNG files for every JPEG? If so, that might be something to eliminate. (eg, the equivalent of a photographer not making prints from every negative). And as you mention, similarity to other photos may be the reason, if the photographer selected what they considered 'best' ... but depending on the purpose of the archive, someone doing future research may be interested in what the photographer considered to be sub-par.
(depending on the type of work they did, it's possible that they weren't making the selections, eg, if it were wedding photos or something else where a client might decide which ones they wanted, and then the additional processing was done)
And remember, you have options besides not accepting the image -- it may be that you reduce the individual files -- either lossy compression or rescaling so that you preserve every image, but possibly not at the full fidelity that you received them. You may want to identify how much storage you can devote to this, and then come up with various scenarios:
- keep 50% of the images at original size, discard the rest
- keep 40% of the images at original size, the rest reduced to 1/6 their size
- keep 30% of the images at original size, the rest reduced to ~1/4 their size
- keep 40% of the images in the main repository, the rest on a lower class of storage.
Obviously, this could get really complex ... the first analysis pass may not identify enough candidates for weeding, and so you may have to expend more resources for additional analysis, making it cheaper to adjust the strategy or allocate more storage..
For those of you who work in this scale routinely, what computational or other challenges will this volume pose that we probably haven't encountered before?
If you have to reprocess the data, there might be some computational issues, but it might be possible to use cloud computing for this. The main issue that I run into is access -- we don't want to serve the full resolution file if there is some smaller variant that will suffice.
Eg, if you have 20 megapixel images, most people won't need that resolution if they're just browsing through the images. You might be able to serve images at 1/2 or 1/4 scale (1/4 or 1/16 the pixel count) for most people. Those that want to zoom in to see detail could then request the higher fidelity image if the browse image won't suffice for their needs.
Ideally, you could use something like JPEG2000 and a JPIP server so that you don't have to maintain multiple processed forms of the images, but support isn't currently baked into most web browsers, so you have to have some sort of intermediary service do the conversion between JPEG2000 and JPEG. I don't know what the current status is for this sort of thing in conventional archives, as we have some abnormal use cases and interface with a bunch of ad-hoc services.
I guess the only real consideration that I can think of is how you're going to be getting the files. Depending on the schedule that you'll be ingesting, over the network may not be efficient. For large, bulk transfers (eg, the 15TB initial load), we physically transport the disks. (USB or firewire drives + FedEx or UPS if it's long distance)
Personally, I find that 15TB isn't really the important number, the important issues are the maximum image size (can we open them to look at them, or are they too large for most of our current desktops?) and the number of discrete files (it takes just as long to catalog a 50kB image as a 50MB one, once you get past the process of opening the file)